Non-linear regression models for Approximate Bayesian Computation

Non-linear regression models for Approximate Bayesian Computation

Approximate Bayesian inference on the basis of summary statistics is wellsuited to complex problems for which the likelihood is either mathematically or computationally intractable. However the methods that use rejection suffer from the curse of dimensionality when the number of summary statistics is increased. Here we propose a machine-learning approach to the estimation of the posterior densi...

Convergence of Regression Adjusted Approximate Bayesian Computation

We present asymptotic results for the regression-adjusted version of approximate Bayesian computation introduced by Beaumont et al. (2002). We show that for an appropriate choice of the bandwidth, regression adjustment will lead to a posterior that, asymptotically, correctly quantifies uncertainty. Furthermore, for such a choice of bandwidth we can implement an importance sampling algorithm to ...

Adaptive approximate Bayesian computation for complex models

Bayesian Model Averaging for Linear Regression Models

We consider the problem of accounting for model uncertainty in linear regression models. Conditioning on a single selected model ignores model uncertainty, and thus leads to the underestimation of uncertainty when making inferences about quantities of interest. A Bayesian solution to this problem involves averaging over all possible models (i.e., combinations of predictors) when making inferenc...

Sequential Bayesian computation of logistic regression models

The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) algorithm for identification of a state space model is shown to be a sensible tool in estimating a Logistic Regression Model sequentially. A Gaussian probability density over the parameters of the Logistic model is propagated on a sample by sample basis. Two other approaches, the Laplace Approximation and the Variational Approximation are compared with the state...